Sunday, April 19, 2009

Industrial and Construction output in the US/EU!

The beige book for US production and consumption, states an overall picture--albeit not based on the opinions of the other Fed Reserve Banks other than Dallas-- of the US economy. (In case you did not already know)

The information was sent out last week, and sorry for posting it today.

As with the Industrial production report (IPR), it states that Industrial production is down 1.5 percent in March, the beige books states that manufacturing is down across the board in several districts in particular. Most particularly in the The Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.

The IPR states that In March, manufacturing output decreased 1.7 percent, and, for the first quarter as a whole, manufacturing output dropped at an annual rate of 22.5 percent after falling nearly 18 percent in the fourth quarter.

This sets up my other argument, in that the same IR states that car manufacturing, in particular, is up.
"The only major component of durable manufactures to increase production for the month was motor vehicles and parts; nonetheless, output in this industry fell at an annual rate of about 67 percent for the quarter as a whole"
Is this a reflection of the bail-out for automakers? The IPR also states that manufacturing in transport related items, were also up. The US stimulus plan was geared around transportation public sector spending and green technology in auto-part manufacturing.

The thought is that these auto parts makers, are producing in the event of the uptick in demand--perhaps already in motion, as spending from the stimulus package, the American Recovery and Investment Act of 2009, has already begun.

On the other hand in the EU and Euro zone, production is also down in February 2009 compared to January 2009 Construction output down by 1.8% in the euro area Down by 1.6% in the EU27.

Dragged down by Germany, who are just now mulling over the idea of having much larger stimulus packages, after month's of rueing the idea that others have at their expense in the Euro zone, as well as, Germany, thinking about, in the open, a full scale financial bailout for one of their mortgage lenders, Hypo Real Estate.

In any event, the monthly comparisons state that among the Member States for which data are available for February 2009, construction output rose in six and fell in five. The most significant increases were registered in Bulgaria (+2.0%), Germany (+1.9%) and Slovenia (+1.1%). The largest decreases were recorded in Romania (-8.6%), Spain (-5.3%) and Czech Republic (-2.0%).

Annually, Among the Member States for which data are available for February 2009, construction output fell in nine and rose only in Poland (+2.2%) and Sweden (+2.1%). The largest decreases were registered in Slovenia (-25.0%), Germany (-20.9%) and Spain (-15.4%).

The Spanish case, in this authors mind, is due to the softness in the travel industry, which was a big part of their construction and commercial real estate portfolio. If you have declining tourists or second home builders because your construction was geared around it, then you will have a weak construction sector.
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